August 18 Phosphate Fertilizer Daily Review: Geopolitical Risks Lift Cost Support; MAP Weak but Stable, DAP Firm While Awaiting Market Direction

MAP Price Index:

According to Feidoodoo data calculations, on August 18, the domestic 55% powdered MAP index was 4,392.50, stable from the previous working day; the 55% granular index was 4,450.00, stable from the previous working day; and the 58% powdered index was 4,693.33, stable from the previous working day.

MAP Market Analysis and Forecast:

Today, the domestic MAP market continued to consolidate on the weak side. On the enterprise side, most plants were still executing previous orders, while some traders quoted slightly lower prices. Market prices were temporarily stable, and actual transactions were negotiated. On the market side, wait-and-see sentiment was strong. On the demand side, demand from some downstream compound fertilizer enterprises showed no obvious improvement, with only limited rigid-demand procurement maintained. New-order transactions were limited, and demand remained relatively weak. On the raw material side, the window period for the U.S.-Iran memorandum of understanding has ended without substantive progress in negotiations. The struggle over dominance in the Strait of Hormuz has become the focus, with stronger statements from both sides and a more entrenched standoff. The probability of a full-scale war in the short term is limited, but uncertainties such as maritime friction and shipping-lane control continue to exist. Today, domestic sulfur prices ran firm with divergent trends; overall sulfur port inventory remained relatively low; sulfuric acid prices continued weak consolidation; and phosphate rock stayed firm at a high level, with cost-side support still relatively strong. Overall, the MAP market is expected to continue weak consolidation in the short term. Follow-up attention should focus on raw material price trends, the pace of downstream compound fertilizer autumn stockpiling, and the transmission impact of geopolitical developments on costs.

DAP Price Index:

According to Feidoodoo data calculations, on August 18, the domestic mainstream 64% granular DAP index was 4,571.67, stable from the previous working day; the 60% brown DAP index was 4,700.00, up 8.05% from the previous working day; and the 57% content index was 4,410.00, down 0.17% from the previous working day.

DAP Market Analysis and Forecast:

Today, the domestic DAP market continued to consolidate with a wait-and-see tone. On the enterprise side, some enterprises mainly focused on shipping earlier pending orders. Prices for 60% content products rose sharply, enterprises showed strong willingness to support prices, and actual transactions remained subject to negotiation. On the market side, trading sentiment was stagnant and cautious. On the demand side, the autumn fertilizer market started slowly, downstream demand support was weak, compound fertilizer plants mostly maintained low operating rates, procurement willingness was generally low, market wait-and-see sentiment was strong, downstream inquiries were sporadic, and actual follow-up was relatively limited. On the raw material side, the window period for the U.S.-Iran memorandum of understanding has ended without substantive progress in negotiations. The struggle over dominance in the Strait of Hormuz has become the focus, with stronger statements from both sides and a more entrenched standoff. The probability of a full-scale war in the short term is limited, but uncertainties such as maritime friction and shipping-lane control continue to exist. Today, domestic sulfur prices ran firm with divergent trends; overall sulfur port inventory remained relatively low; sulfuric acid prices continued to run weak; phosphate rock prices stayed firm at high levels; and raw material prices on the cost side remained elevated, with cost pressure continuing to intensify and providing strong support to the market. Overall, the DAP market is expected to maintain a consolidating trend in the short term. Follow-up attention should focus on changes in raw material prices, downstream demand follow-up, and later adjustments to export policy.

Sulfur Market Prices:

According to Feidoodoo data calculations, on August 18, domestic sulfur granular prices at Zhenjiang port were 8,950 yuan/tonne, stable from the previous working day; granular prices at Dafeng port were 8,930 yuan/tonne, stable from the previous working day; powder/block prices at Zhenjiang port were 8,900 yuan/tonne, stable from the previous working day; powder/block prices at Dafeng port were 8,880 yuan/tonne, stable from the previous working day; East China solid sulfur prices were 9,100 yuan/tonne, down 200 yuan/tonne from the previous working day; and East China liquid sulfur prices were 8,730 yuan/tonne, down 130 yuan/tonne from the previous working day.

Sulfur Market Analysis and Forecast:

The United States and Iran are currently maintaining a confrontational stance around the Strait of Hormuz, negotiations have reached a stalemate, shipping risks continue to rise, and trade in energy and fertilizer raw materials remains disrupted. Today, the domestic sulfur spot market overall showed stable-to-consolidating movement, with divergent price trends and a continued wait-and-see trading atmosphere. In terms of port inventory, total national sulfur port inventory rose slightly month-on-month. Although many holders are willing to sell, they remain hesitant toward current low buying indications and have limited willingness to make proactive concessions. Most other merchants maintained a market-following wait-and-see stance and had no intention of actively adjusting offers. The downstream phosphate fertilizer market continued weak consolidation. Phosphate fertilizer enterprises held firm offers, but actual negotiation space remained flexible. Finished compound fertilizer shipments were sluggish, plant operating rate increases were limited, raw material procurement became more cautious, and only small demand-based replenishment was maintained. The autumn fertilizer market started slowly, terminal buyers lacked purchasing enthusiasm, and sulfur demand continued to be suppressed. Most merchants maintained a market-following wait-and-see approach. The real constraint of weak demand remains, and the sulfur market still faces the possibility of weak consolidation in the short term. In the short term, the sulfur market is expected to continue a weak and stalemated pattern, with limited upside and gradually accumulating correction risk. Follow-up attention should focus on geopolitical developments, port arrival schedules, and changes in downstream phosphate fertilizer procurement pace.

Phosphate Fertilizer Market Updates:

August 18: In Anhui, 55% powdered MAP delivered prices were quoted around 4,450-4,500 yuan/tonne, with offers stable.

August 18: In Northeast China, 55% powdered MAP delivered prices were around 4,250-4,250 yuan/tonne, with offers stable.

August 18: In Henan, 55% powdered MAP delivered prices were around 4,430-4,480 yuan/tonne, with offers stable.

August 18: In Hubei, mainstream ex-factory prices for 55% powdered MAP were around 4,350-4,450 yuan/tonne, with offers stable.

August 18: In Jiangsu, 55% powdered MAP delivered prices were around 4,400-4,500 yuan/tonne, with offers stable.

August 18: In Shandong, delivered offers for 55% powdered MAP were around 4,400-4,500 yuan/tonne, with offers stable.

August 18: In Sichuan, delivered offers for 55% powdered MAP were around 4,300-4,350 yuan/tonne, with offers stable.

August 18: In Yunnan, ex-factory prices for 55% powdered MAP were around 4,250-4,300 yuan/tonne, with offers stable.

August 18: In Shaanxi, 60% DAP self-pickup ex-factory offers were 4,700-4,750 yuan/tonne, with offers raised.

August 18: In Northeast China, 64% DAP self-pickup ex-factory offers were 4,550-4,600 yuan/tonne, with offers stable.

August 18: In Hebei, 57% DAP self-pickup offers were 4,380-4,450 yuan/tonne, with offers stable.

August 18: In Hubei, 64% DAP self-pickup ex-factory offers were 4,800-4,850 yuan/tonne, with offers stable.

August 18: In Shandong, 64% DAP self-pickup ex-warehouse offers were 4,900-5,000 yuan/tonne, with offers stable; 57% self-pickup station offers were 4,400-4,450 yuan/tonne, with offers stable.