August 19 Phosphate Fertilizer Daily Review: Sulfur Market Consolidates at High Levels; Phosphate Fertilizers Remain Stalemated and Cautious

MAP Price Index:

According to Feidoodoo data calculations, on August 19, the domestic 55% powdered MAP index was 4,392.50, stable from the previous working day; the 55% granular index was 4,450.00, stable from the previous working day; and the 58% powdered index was 4,693.33, stable from the previous working day.

MAP Market Analysis and Forecast:

Today, the domestic MAP market continued to run weak. On the enterprise side, most plants were still executing previous orders, while some traders quoted slightly lower prices. Market prices were temporarily stable, and actual transactions were negotiated. On the market side, wait-and-see sentiment was strong. On the demand side, shipments from some downstream compound fertilizer enterprises were slow, with only limited rigid-demand procurement maintained. New-order transactions were limited, and demand remained relatively weak. On the raw material side, the U.S.-Iran geopolitical situation remained generally in a de-escalated standoff today. Neither side showed signs of direct military conflict escalation, and related diplomatic statements were cautious and restrained, but uncertainties such as maritime friction and shipping-lane control continue to exist. Today, domestic sulfur prices consolidated in a stalemate with divergent trends; overall sulfur port inventory remained relatively low; sulfuric acid prices continued weak consolidation; and the phosphate rock market operated under pressure, though prices overall remained within a historically high range. Cost-side support remained relatively strong. Overall, the MAP market is expected to maintain weak consolidation in the short term. Follow-up attention should focus on raw material price trends, the pace of downstream compound fertilizer autumn stockpiling, and the transmission impact of geopolitical developments on costs.

DAP Price Index:

According to Feidoodoo data calculations, on August 19, the domestic mainstream 64% granular DAP index was 4,571.67, stable from the previous working day; the 60% brown DAP index was 4,700.00, up 8.05% from the previous working day; and the 57% content index was 4,410.00, stable from the previous working day.

DAP Market Analysis and Forecast:

Today, the domestic DAP market continued to consolidate. On the enterprise side, some enterprises mainly focused on shipping earlier pending orders. Enterprises showed strong willingness to support prices, and actual transactions remained subject to negotiation. On the market side, trading sentiment was stalemated and cautious. On the demand side, the autumn fertilizer market started slowly, downstream demand support was weak, compound fertilizer plants mostly maintained low operating rates, procurement willingness was generally low, market wait-and-see sentiment was strong, downstream inquiries were sporadic, and actual follow-up was relatively limited. On the raw material side, the U.S.-Iran geopolitical situation remained generally in a de-escalated standoff today. Neither side showed signs of direct military conflict escalation, and related diplomatic statements were cautious and restrained, but uncertainties such as maritime friction and shipping-lane control continue to exist. Today, domestic sulfur prices consolidated in a stalemate with divergent trends; overall sulfur port inventory remained relatively low; sulfuric acid prices continued weak consolidation; and the phosphate rock market operated under pressure, though prices overall remained within a historically high range. Raw material prices on the cost side stayed high, cost pressure has not eased significantly, and the market is still receiving strong support. Overall, the DAP market is expected to maintain a stable-to-narrow consolidation trend in the short term. Follow-up attention should focus on changes in raw material prices, downstream demand follow-up, and later adjustments to export policy.

Sulfur Market Prices:

According to Feidoodoo data calculations, on August 19, domestic granular sulfur prices at Zhenjiang port were 8,850 yuan/tonne, down 100 yuan/tonne from the previous working day; granular prices at Dafeng port were 8,830 yuan/tonne, down 100 yuan/tonne from the previous working day; powder/block prices at Zhenjiang port were 8,800 yuan/tonne, down 100 yuan/tonne from the previous working day; powder/block prices at Dafeng port were 8,780 yuan/tonne, down 100 yuan/tonne from the previous working day; East China solid sulfur prices were 9,100 yuan/tonne, stable from the previous working day; and East China liquid sulfur prices were 8,770 yuan/tonne, up 40 yuan/tonne from the previous working day.

Sulfur Market Analysis and Forecast:

The current U.S.-Iran geopolitical situation is generally maintaining the existing standoff, with no sudden escalation signals for now. Negotiations are in stalemate, shipping risks continue to rise, and trade in energy and fertilizer raw materials remains disrupted. Today, the domestic sulfur spot market overall showed stable-to-consolidating movement, with divergent price trends and continued wait-and-see trading sentiment. Taking granular sulfur at Zhenjiang port as a regional benchmark, today’s market rhythm was in line with morning expectations. Holders at the port gradually became more willing to sell, but downstream inquiry follow-up was weak, and the overall trading atmosphere turned quieter. Some cargo holders proactively contacted earlier potential buyers one-on-one for communication, while most buyers maintained strong wait-and-see sentiment and delayed purchases, with only a small number of transaction rumors heard in the market. In the afternoon, the sluggish inquiry situation did not improve. Some holders proactively adjusted offers to facilitate transactions, further driving the market lower. From a supply-demand perspective, potential buyers generally delayed procurement plans and held cash while waiting, and market cargo available for circulation increased, continuously narrowing sellers’ bargaining room. With no new geopolitical variables, market movement is mainly driven by supply-demand fundamentals, and sulfur prices still have room to probe lower in the short term. Follow-up attention should focus on the progress of U.S.-Iran negotiations and navigation conditions in the Strait, changes in operating rates in downstream phosphate fertilizer and sulfuric acid industries, the pace of port inventory drawdown, and the launch of autumn fertilizer stockpiling demand. Before any substantive easing in the geopolitical situation, the cost-side support logic remains in place, but whether it can effectively transmit to spot prices still depends on demand-side signals.

Phosphate Fertilizer Market Updates:

August 19: In Anhui, 55% powdered MAP delivered prices were quoted around 4,450-4,500 yuan/tonne, with offers stable.

August 19: In Northeast China, 55% powdered MAP delivered prices were around 4,250-4,250 yuan/tonne, with offers stable.

August 19: In Henan, 55% powdered MAP delivered prices were around 4,430-4,480 yuan/tonne, with offers stable.

August 19: In Hubei, mainstream ex-factory prices for 55% powdered MAP were around 4,350-4,450 yuan/tonne, with offers stable.

August 19: In Jiangsu, 55% powdered MAP delivered prices were around 4,400-4,500 yuan/tonne, with offers stable.

August 19: In Shandong, delivered offers for 55% powdered MAP were around 4,400-4,500 yuan/tonne, with offers stable.

August 19: In Sichuan, delivered offers for 55% powdered MAP were around 4,300-4,350 yuan/tonne, with offers stable.

August 19: In Yunnan, ex-factory prices for 55% powdered MAP were around 4,250-4,300 yuan/tonne, with offers stable.

August 19: In Shaanxi, 60% DAP self-pickup ex-factory offers were 4,700-4,750 yuan/tonne, with offers stable.

August 19: In Northeast China, 64% DAP self-pickup ex-factory offers were 4,550-4,600 yuan/tonne, with offers stable.

August 19: In Hebei, 57% DAP self-pickup offers were 4,380-4,450 yuan/tonne, with offers stable.

August 19: In Hubei, 64% DAP self-pickup ex-factory offers were 4,800-4,850 yuan/tonne, with offers stable.

August 19: In Shandong, 64% DAP self-pickup ex-warehouse offers were 4,900-5,000 yuan/tonne, with offers stable; 57% self-pickup station offers were 4,400-4,450 yuan/tonne, with offers stable.