August 13 Phosphate Fertilizer Daily Review: Cost Support and Weak Demand in a Tug-of-War, Market Stalemated with a Weak Bias

MAP Price Index:

According to Feidoodoo data calculations: on August 13, the domestic 55% powder MAP index was 4392.50, unchanged from the previous working day; the 55% granular MAP index was 4450.00, unchanged from the previous working day; and the 58% powder MAP index was 4693.33, unchanged from the previous working day.

MAP Market Analysis and Forecast:

The domestic MAP market maintained a weak bias today. On the enterprise side, most producers are still executing previous orders, some traders’ prices are slightly lower, market prices were temporarily stable, and actual transactions were negotiated. On the market side, wait-and-see sentiment was relatively strong. On the demand side, demand from some downstream compound fertilizer enterprises showed no obvious improvement, only small rigid-demand procurement was maintained, new order transactions were limited, and demand remained relatively weak. On the raw material side, navigation risks in the Strait of Hormuz continued to escalate in the Middle East. Iran clearly stated that the Strait remains closed, and repeated U.S. claims that it has “fully controlled” the Strait have not changed the facts. Navigation uncertainty remains high. Domestic sulfur prices consolidated narrowly at high levels today, while sulfur port inventories remain relatively low overall. Sulfuric acid prices continued weak consolidation, and phosphate rock remained high and stable, so cost-side support remains relatively strong. Overall, the short-term MAP market is expected to continue weak consolidation. Follow-up attention should focus on raw material price trends, the start pace of downstream compound fertilizer autumn preparation, and the transmission of geopolitical developments to costs.

DAP Price Index:

According to Feidoodoo data calculations: on August 13, the domestic mainstream 64% granular DAP index was 4571.67, unchanged from the previous working day; the 60% brown DAP index was 4350.00, unchanged from the previous working day; and the 57% DAP index was 4417.50, down 0.45% from the previous working day.

DAP Market Analysis and Forecast:

The domestic DAP market continued to operate steadily today. On the enterprise side, some producers mainly focused on shipping previous pending orders, market prices showed no obvious changes, and actual transactions remained negotiable. On the market side, stalemate and wait-and-see sentiment remained relatively strong. On the demand side, downstream demand support was weak, compound fertilizer plants mostly maintained low operating rates, procurement willingness was generally low, only scattered downstream inquiries appeared, and actual order follow-up was relatively limited. On the raw material side, navigation risks in the Strait of Hormuz continued to escalate in the Middle East. Iran clearly stated that the Strait remains closed, and repeated U.S. claims that it has “fully controlled” the Strait have not changed the facts. Navigation uncertainty remains high. Domestic sulfur prices consolidated narrowly at high levels today, while sulfur port inventories remain relatively low overall. Sulfuric acid prices continued weak consolidation, and phosphate rock prices remained high and stable. Raw material costs at the cost side remained high, cost pressure continued to intensify, and support for the market remained strong. Overall, the short-term DAP market is expected to continue stalemated consolidation. Follow-up attention should focus on raw material price changes, downstream demand follow-up, and later export policy adjustments.

Sulfur Market Prices:

According to Feidoodoo data calculations: on August 13, the domestic granular sulfur price at Zhenjiang Port was 9050 yuan/tonne, down 50 yuan/tonne from the previous working day; the granular sulfur price at Dafeng Port was 9030 yuan/tonne, down 50 yuan/tonne from the previous working day; the powder/block sulfur price at Zhenjiang Port was 9000 yuan/tonne, down 50 yuan/tonne from the previous working day; the powder/block sulfur price at Dafeng Port was 8980 yuan/tonne, down 50 yuan/tonne from the previous working day; the East China solid sulfur price was 9300 yuan/tonne, unchanged from the previous working day; and the East China liquid sulfur price was 9010 yuan/tonne, up 3550 yuan/tonne from the previous working day.

Sulfur Market Analysis and Forecast:

The sulfur market continues to show a high-level stalemate, with bullish and bearish factors intertwined and the overall market moving in narrow fluctuations. Geopolitical conditions continue to form the core support on the supply side. The U.S.-Iran game has entered an “adjustment period.” Although both sides have stopped large-scale military strikes, the gap in their positions has not narrowed, and mutual distrust continues to deepen. Navigation risks in the Strait of Hormuz continue to escalate. Iran has clearly stated that the Strait remains closed, and repeated U.S. claims that it has “fully controlled” the Strait have not changed the facts. Affected by the continued closure of the Strait and the Middle East situation, global oil and sulfur trade transportation costs have risen significantly. In the domestic market, regional divergence is obvious and overall trading is cautious. Market participants lack confidence while waiting, inquiry and buying sentiment remains sluggish, and there has been no obvious price interaction in trading. The Shandong market moved in narrow fluctuations, transaction price ranges in independent refinery auctions narrowed, auction enthusiasm was average, demand was slightly flat, and terminal factories only maintained rigid-demand follow-up. Auction sentiment in Northwest China was poor, and no obvious improvement was seen after several factories lowered starting prices, with failed auctions still occurring. Liquid sulfur prices in Northeast China remained stable. Overall, downstream buyers followed up with appropriate purchases as needed, no broad-based new rigid demand appeared, trading remained cautious, and the market maintained narrow fluctuations. In the short term, geopolitical disruptions will continue to provide bottom support for overseas prices, and the conditions for a sharp deep decline are not yet present. Navigation risks in the Strait of Hormuz are difficult to remove in the short term, and expectations of tighter global sulfur supply remain. However, domestic demand follow-up is weak, and the contradiction between high prices and suppressed procurement is difficult to ease quickly. Regional price divergence may continue. Shandong and port markets are relatively firm under support from overseas costs, while inland markets such as Northwest China still face some downward pressure amid weak demand. Overall, short-term sulfur spot prices are expected to maintain high-level fluctuations, with the price center potentially edging slightly lower. Follow-up attention should focus on navigation progress in the Strait of Hormuz, contract price adjustments by major Middle Eastern exporters, and changes in downstream procurement pace.

Phosphate Fertilizer Market Updates:

August 13: In Anhui, 55% powder MAP delivered prices were around 4450-4500 yuan/tonne, with quotations stable.

August 13: In Northeast China, 55% powder MAP delivered prices were around 4250-4250 yuan/tonne, with quotations stable.

August 13: In Henan, 55% powder MAP delivered prices were around 4430-4480 yuan/tonne, with quotations stable.

August 13: In Hubei, mainstream ex-factory prices for 55% powder MAP were around 4350-4450 yuan/tonne, with quotations stable.

August 13: In Jiangsu, 55% powder MAP delivered prices were around 4400-4500 yuan/tonne, with quotations stable.

August 13: In Shandong, 55% powder MAP delivered quotations were around 4400-4500 yuan/tonne, with quotations stable.

August 13: In Sichuan, 55% powder MAP delivered quotations were around 4300-4350 yuan/tonne, with quotations stable.

August 13: In Yunnan, 55% powder MAP ex-factory prices were around 4250-4300 yuan/tonne, with quotations stable.

August 13: In Shaanxi, 60% DAP self-pickup ex-factory quotations were 4300-4350 yuan/tonne, with quotations stable.

August 13: In Northeast China, 64% DAP self-pickup ex-factory quotations were 4550-4600 yuan/tonne, with quotations stable.

August 13: In Hebei, 57% DAP self-pickup quotations were 4380-4450 yuan/tonne, with quotations lowered.

August 13: In Hubei, 64% DAP self-pickup ex-factory quotations were 4800-4850 yuan/tonne, with quotations stable.

August 13: In Shandong, 64% DAP self-pickup ex-warehouse quotations were 4900-5000 yuan/tonne, with quotations stable; 57% DAP self-pickup station quotations were 4400-4450 yuan/tonne, with quotations lowered.