August 18 Pesticide Daily Review: Stable with Divergence

The pesticide market overall remained weak in sentiment. During the traditional off-season, downstream demand follow-up was limited, market drivers were insufficient, and the cost-push logic eased somewhat as geopolitical tensions cooled. Cost increases still supported some products, and supply contracted to some extent under the influence of various factors. However, due to transmission issues along the industrial chain, downstream negative feedback caused by price increases also continued to emerge. The market is temporarily waiting to see whether terminal demand can further absorb the increase. Tensions in the Middle East remain elevated, the ceasefire negotiation window between the two sides has expired, and market concerns have resurfaced. In addition, the issue of navigation management rights in the Strait of Hormuz remains difficult to resolve. Shipping costs and supply disruptions in the petrochemical chain are still irreversible in the short term, so bottom cost support remains. Overall, market caution persists. Price increases in some upstream products continue to face obstacles in passing through to downstream sectors, upward drivers have slowed, and the wait-and-see atmosphere remains evident. Follow-up attention should be paid to changes in geopolitical sentiment, export momentum and seasonal demand.

Market Analysis

Herbicides: The herbicide market is currently operating weakly overall, with limited demand follow-up. Although cost support from geopolitical risks still exists, insufficient demand absorption makes it difficult to generate upward momentum. The United States has invoked the Defense Production Act to list elemental phosphorus and glyphosate herbicides as critical defense materials, requiring priority protection of domestic supply. This continues to provide some support to the domestic market. In addition, Bayer has withdrawn its application for anti-dumping and countervailing investigations against Chinese glyphosate, easing sentiment pressure, but actual demand still needs to be observed. Overall, downstream buyers are mainly maintaining rigid-demand procurement. Short-term demand support remains weak and continues to soften. Follow-up attention should be paid to whether export issues improve and to changes in geopolitical sentiment.

Yellow phosphorus: Today, yellow phosphorus market prices were largely stable. Market sentiment weakened slightly from the previous period, and only limited inquiries and shipments were seen. Enterprises mainly fulfilled delivery orders, while price fluctuations temporarily lacked clear drivers. However, upstream enterprises generally have relatively limited inventories in the short term, and conditions for price support still exist. After earlier restocking, downstream buyers have weakened further purchasing efforts, providing limited support for high prices, while some enterprises have made narrow concessions to facilitate sales. In the short term, upstream enterprises are signing and delivering orders, while downstream procurement is temporarily demand-based. As follow-up momentum slows, market sentiment has come under pressure, and prices are expected to fluctuate within a narrow range in the short term.

Pesticide Market Price Overview

Herbicides:

98% 2,4-D fell by 500 yuan to 13,500 yuan/tonne; 95% glufosinate rose by 500 yuan to 51,000 yuan/tonne; 95% nicosulfuron fell by 2,000 yuan to 153,000 yuan/tonne; 96% bispyribac-sodium fell by 5,000 yuan to 200,000 yuan/tonne; 97% haloxyfop-P-methyl fell by 3,000 yuan to 115,000 yuan/tonne.

Insecticides:

97% nitenpyram fell by 3,000 yuan to 113,000 yuan/tonne. 97% pymetrozine fell by 2,000 yuan to 96,000 yuan/tonne.

Fungicides:

95% tricyclazole fell by 2,000 yuan to 62,000 yuan/tonne.